Objective: Acute pancreatitis (AP) often manifests as acute abdominal pain and carries significant risks of mortality and healthcare costs. Its incidence is rising, largely due to alcohol consumption and obesity. Several scoring systems, including the Ranson, Balthazar Severity score, and bedside index for severity in AP, are used to assess AP severity and prognosis, but challenges remain due to the need for prolonged observation and imaging. The present study assesses the ability of the Ranson and HALP scores to predict clinical outcomes and survival in patients with AP.
Materials and
Methods: This retrospective analysis included patients with AP, collecting data on demographics, vital signs, laboratory values, comorbidities, and outcomes. The Ranson and HALP scores were calculated, and patients were grouped into survivors and non-survivors based on mortality. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive ability of these scores for complications and mortality.

Results: The study included 598 patients, with an overall mortality rate of 12.2%. The non-survivor group had significantly higher mean age and a higher prevalence of malignancy and pancreatitis caused by pancreatic cancer. Severe pancreatitis (Ranson score ≥3) was observed in 21.1% of patients, with these patients exhibiting a higher mortality rate (30.2%). The HALP score demonstrated superior performance over the Ranson score in predicting long-term mortality (area under the curve: 0.800, 95% CI: 0.735–0.864, p=0.000). The first quartile group of the HALP score had significantly higher incidences of complications, severe pancreatitis, and mortality.

Conclusion: The HALP score offers a reliable and rapid alternative to the Ranson score for predicting mortality in AP patients, especially in emergency department settings where timely decision-making is crucial. Its simplicity and predictive value make it a useful tool for clinicians.